Ask Alex: Will Trevor Cahill be a Cy Young contender?

We all have questions about the 2011 season and Alex Remington luckily has some answers. The Stew's resident stats guru will address the big questions as opening day approaches.

The Situation: The 2010 Oakland Athletics were an extremely mixed bag: They combined the league's best rotation with some of its worst hitting, and finished at exactly .500, the fourth straight year they failed to win more games than they lost. Odds are, the 2011 A's will continue to pitch better than they hit, led by 22-year old All-Star Trevor Cahill, 23-year old Brett Anderson, 25-year old Gio Gonzalez, and 26-year-old All-Star closer Andrew Bailey.

A month younger than Anderson (who turned 23 on Feb. 1), Cahill is the team's youngest returning player — and was the team's biggest breakout star last year, leading the rotation with 18 wins and a 2.97 ERA despite a pedestrian 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings and mediocre 1.87 strikeout to walk radio. As Joe Stiglich of the Oakland Tribune noted, it was the first time a pitcher that young had won 18 games since Bret Saberhagen did so in 1985 — and Bret won the Cy Young for his troubles. (Cahill finished ninth in 2010.)

The Question: Will Trevor Cahill be a Cy Young contender after his breakout season?

The Analysis: It's not impossible, but it's extremely unlikely. He got really lucky last year, and he'll have to get an awful lot luckier — or start striking out a whole lot more batters — to have a shot at a Cy Young award. Despite possessing an average fastball velocity of 90.4 MPH last season, he struck out more than a batter an inning in his minor league career. But once he got to the majors, his strikeout rate fell by half.

Indeed, sabermetric red flags are everywhere: Cahill's swinging strike rate, overall strikeout rate, contact rate, and batting average on balls in play are all well below the major league average, but his strand rate is well above the major league average. This means that he's giving up a lot of contact, and often hard contact, but he's been lucky on two things that are largely outside his control: how many of the batted balls fall for hits, and how many of those baserunners score. Moreover, he benefits from Oakland Coliseum, one of the best pitchers' parks in the majors — for his career, he has a 3.26 ERA at home and a 4.40 ERA on the road.

On the bright side, Cahill is a young guy who has already won 28 games in the major leagues, and that isn't a fluke. He was a second round draft pick who blazed through the minors and has held his own in the majors despite a lack of a blazing fastball. Moreover, as Nico at Athletics Nation pointed out last week, Cahill brings other qualities to the table: He's very good at fielding his position and at inducing ground balls — which tends to suppress slugging — and he's very adaptable, constantly working on and refining his mechanics and secondary pitches. Even the bloggers at Athletics Nation don't think he's a Cy Young candidate, though, as DFA designated him as "a mid range No. 3 starter" and Nico considers him a 75 on a 100 point scale, writing:

This would mean that if in 2011, you are hoping to see an 18-game winner with an ERA under 3.00 who is in the conversation for "Top 10 Cy Young award candidates," you are going to be disappointed. It would also mean you have a pitcher who, as he makes his Cactus League debut on or about his 23rd birthday, is better than 3/4 of his major league peers — and that's a good thing to have.

Pretty much everyone from optimist to pessimist, fan to foe, has Cahill projected for a step backward this year. How much of a step backward, though, depends on whom you ask. Athletics Nation's Nico is the most optimistic: 15-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 5.7 K/9. The Bill James Handbook dials that back to 12-12 with a 3.67 ERA and 5.3 K/9. And Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system has him at 14-12 with a 4.07 ERA and 5.5 K/9.

In other words, they all pretty much agree that he won't get better at striking people out, but they disagree pretty strongly about how much that will hurt him. We have very good evidence that he can pull this off: his 2.97 ERA over 196 2/3 innings in 2010. We also have very good evidence that he can get hurt by it: his 4.63 ERA over 178 2/3 innings in 2009. All three of those projections split the difference, but Szymborski is the only one who sees 2009 as more indicative of his true talent than 2010. Unfortunately, as long as Cahill's strikeout rate remains this low, I'm inclined to agree with him.

The Forecast for 2011: Barring injury, Trevor Cahill will be a solid contributor to the 2011 A's, a starter who is especially strong in his home park. But he's a groundball pitcher who doesn't miss bats, and for all his tinkering, and his fine sinker, he hasn't found a pitch that major league hitters will swing and miss at. Until he does that, I just can't see him repeating his success over a sustained length of time. So I'll go with Szymborski, leaving the caveat that Cahill was a strikeout pitcher in the minors who could vastly beat my projections if he can find a way to translate those strikeouts to the majors. For now, I'm projecting major dropoffs in wins and ERA, with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.25, and between 11 and 14 wins.

Do you have a question about the 2011 season for Alex? Email him here.

Previous questions: Can the Red Sox win 100 games?, How many games will the Astros win?, Will the Phillies miss Jayson Werth?, Will Buster Posey experience a sophomore slump?

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16-year-old Lexi Thompson humbles entire male population, wins mini-tour event

Want to feel a little more insecure about your golf game? Try this on for size: a 16-year-old girl beat a bunch of guys in a South Florida mini-tour event earlier today.

Lexi Thompson fired a 4-under 68 to get into a playoff with Brett Bergeron before winning on the second playoff hole at TPC Eagle Trace, which happens to be her home course.

Thompson isn't a household name like Paula Creamer or Michelle Wie, but she clearly has the game to go far. Aside from becoming the youngest golfer to ever qualify for the U.S. Women's Open at age 12, she also made headlines earlier this year when the LPGA decided to deny her the chance to use 12 sponsors expemtions in 2011.

While we won't get to see as much of her as we'd like, she's clearly making good use of her time in the interim by beating the guys at their own game.

As Golf Digest's Ashley Mayo noted, Thompson became the second woman in Minor League Golf Tour history -- former Futurer Tour player Carrie Dykstra won in 2004 -- to win an event.

So what did Thompson get for winning? A lousy $1,100, which is chump change to what she'll make when she's competing full-time on the LPGA when she turns 18. The best gift of all was probably the looks on all of her competitors' faces when she hoisted the trophy at the end of the tournament. That moment was priceless.

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The life of a Monday qualifier: Erik Compton's insane schedule

This, friends, is the life of a pro golfer.

Erik Compton Mondayed his way into the Northern Trust Open last week, ending up T25th with a Sunday 64. It marked the best finish of Compton's career, and he returned home to Miami on a redeye expecting to celebrate his daughter's second birthday on Tuesday. 

But waiting for him was an email from the PGA Tour: he'd made it into the field for the Panama Claro Championship. That would be Panama, the country, not Panama the Van Halen song or Panama City, the unhinged spring break destination. 

Ah, but there was still the matter of that birthday party. Priorities. Compton celebrated the party, then jumped on a predawn plane to Panama for the tournament. And how did round 1 go? Birdies on the first five holes, another 64 and a tie for the clubhouse lead after round 1.

“I feel a lot better right now than I did the first two holes,” he said after the round, according to Golfweek. 

We'll see how the rest of the weekend turns out for him, but for now, Compton's caddy may want to pack a pillow in the bag. You know, just in case there's a delay and he can catch a quick nap.

Compton still rolling after Riviera [Golfweek]

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Trucks start the wrecking early at Daytona Speedway

If you're the type who tunes into NASCAR races to see the wrecks, you got your money's worth Friday night at the truck race, with not just one, but two! Two! TWO Big Ones! Let's go to the videotape, first with Travis Kvapil setting off a 15-car debacle:

Then, with only a few laps remaining in the race, the gang was running three wide when ...

By the end of the race, only a half-dozen hadn't sustained damage, and two of those belonged to Elliott Sadler and eventual winner Michael Waltrip. If this holds up, expect to see some serious carnage come Sunday afternoon.

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Meet the New Boss: Grading the class-hopping coaching hires

A weeklong grade book for the offseason coaching hires. Today: Established head coaches moving up the career ladder at more prominent jobs.

• Jerry Kill (Minnesota)
Coming from: Northern Illinois, fresh off matching the school record for wins in a season (10), broken in Kill's absence with the Huskies' blowout win over Fresno State in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Replacing: Tim Brewster, who became first coaching casualty of 2010 in the midst of a 1-6 start that brought his record in Minneapolis to 15-30 in three-and-a-half years, with losses along the way at the hands of Bowling Green, Florida Atlantic, North Dakota, South Dakota and, yes, Northern Illinois.
Most Impressive Resumé Line: Besides being named "Kill," he's been a consistent winner at all four stops in 17 seasons as a head coach: Only one of Kill's teams in that span (Southern Illinois in 2005) failed to at least match the record of the team before it, and even the '05 Salukis earned a share of the Gateway Conference championship and the third of five straight trips to the I-AA/FCS playoffs.
Biggest Drawback: Kill's three-year stint at NIU was his first foray onto the I-A/FBS stage after more than 25 years winding throughout the lower levels, but at 50, he's hardly an up-and-comer. He's also faced some persistent health issues over the last five years, .
Key Intangible(s): Sets a new, daunting standard for head coaches who closely resemble the school mascot.
Grade: A–. There aren't many coaches on the market with a career record (127-73) more than 50 games over .500, even if the vast majority of the wins came in small-college obscurity. Assuming the Gophers aren't going to be challenging for Big Ten titles under pretty much any circumstances (last Rose Bowl: 1961, the longest drought in the conference), Kill is a steady presence that can give them a solid string of bowl games and the occasional run at something bigger, without the wholesale collapses that bookended the Brewster era.

• TODD GRAHAM (Pittsburgh)
Coming from: Tulsa, where the Golden Hurricane won at least 10 games and a share of the Conference USA West title in three of Graham's four seasons.
Replacing: Mike Haywood, who lasted 17 days on the job before being fired over a felony domestic assault charge on New Year's Eve. On the heels of five lackluster years under Dave Wannstedt, the bar couldn't be much lower.
Most Impressive Resumé Line: In addition to the division titles, Graham's winning teams at Tulsa also led the nation in total offense twice (2007-08) and finished in the top six in both total and scoring offense three times, in 2007-08 and 2010.
Biggest Drawback: Graham's background is on defense – Tulsa's outsized success on offense in 2007-08 was largely attributed to his co-offensive coordinators, Gus Malzahn and Herb Hand. The Hurricane defense never finished higher than 74th nationally in Graham's four seasons, and twice finished in the bottom twenty.
Key Intangible(s): Has never been arrested.
Grade: B+. Graham's record speaks for itself: His only team at Rice rebounded from a 1-10 flop to end a 45-year bowl drought in 2006; his first two teams at Tulsa both played for the C-USA championship in 2007-08; after a 5-6 mulligan in 2009, his last team at UT upset Notre Dame to kickstart a seven-game winning streak to close the season, and averaged upwards of 500 yards and 40 points per game without Malzahn or Hand on staff. Under the circumstances, the Panthers weren't going to do much better in a search that began abruptly in January.

• PETE LEMBO (Ball State)
Coming from: Elon, a small, church-affiliated school in North Carolina, where Lembo led seven wins over ranked FCS teams in five seasons and took the Phoenix to the I-AA/FCS playoffs for the first time.
Replacing: Stan Parrish, who went 6-19 over two seasons in his first head coaching gig since leading Kansas State into infamy as the nation's most hopeless program in the late eighties.
Most Impressive Resumé Line: Before raising Elon from the ashes, Lembo earned a national coach of the year nod in 2001, his first year as a head coach, for leading Lehigh to a perfect regular season and the quarterfinals of the national playoffs. He took the Mountain Hawks back to the playoffs in 2004.
Biggest Drawback: Has no experience in any capacity above the I-AA/FCS level.
Key Intangible(s): Considers Ball State a significant step up.
Grade: B+. Even Ball State fans aren't that jazzed about a balding, bespectacled guy they'd never heard of before he was handed the keys to their ailing program. But Lembo only has one losing season in nine years as a head coach (his first season at Elon, in which the Phoenix improved from 3-8 in 2005 to 5-6) and has the best career winning percentage (.687) by a mile of any new coach with previous experience hired this offseason.

• AL GOLDEN (Miami)
Coming from: Temple, black hole in which Golden was able to bring some light in the form of the school's first back-to-back winning seasons in 30 years.
Replacing: Randy Shannon, whose substantial improvements to the Hurricanes' academic and criminal records were easily overshadowed by his team's clear step back last year in a make-or-break campaign.
Most Impressive Resumé Line: Did we mention back-to-back winning seasons at Temple? The year before Golden's arrival, the Owls were 0-11 in 2005 and had just been booted from the Big East for a solid decade of all-purpose futility. Golden won almost as many games (17) in his last two seasons in Philly as his predecessor, Bobby Wallace, won in eight (19).
Biggest Drawback: Has a losing record in limited experience as a head coach (27-34 over five years), and only two of those wins came against teams that finished with a winning record – Navy in 2009 and BCS-bound UConn last September.
Key Intangible(s): Comes from square-jawed roots under mentors Tom O'Brien, Joe Paterno (as a player and coach) and Al Groh, and reportedly has players "fired up" by Golden's hands-on emphasis on discipline.
Grade: B. Considering he was perpetually floated as a possible replacement for Joe Paterno at his alma mater, it's not like Miami went out on a limb for a neophyte – at least Golden comes with experience as a head coach, unlike the 'Canes' last two hires, Shannon and Larry Coker. But they're clearly more interested in striking, uh, gold with an up-and-comer hitting the prime of his career than in a more accomplished resumé.

• BRADY HOKE (Michigan)
Coming from: San Diego State, fresh from the Aztecs' first winning season in more than a decade in Hoke's second year.
Replacing: Rich Rodriguez, a competent profession who found himself in a wrong place/wrong time situation with the deck stacked against him from day one or a ham-fisted sadist who systematically detonated the century-old pillars of Michigan Football, depending on your perspective. Whatever the baby steps the Wolverines were taking over the course of Rich Rod's tenure, they were effectively negated by the catastrophic ending.
Most Impressive Resumé Line: It took a while, but Hoke finally broke through at Ball State with a 12-0 regular season in 2008, his sixth season in Muncie, and quickly raised SDSU from the embarrassment of the Chuck Long era. But his advocates in Michigan seem at least as impressed by his stint as defensive line coach on Lloyd Carr's staff from 1995-2002, and on the Wolverines' 1997 national championship team, in particular.
Biggest Drawback: Also has a losing record as a head coach: 47-50 over eight years, with three winning seasons to five that finished sub-.500.
Key Intangible(s): Has a connection to the pre-Rodriguez era, is known and liked in Michigan circles, more or less openly lobbied for the job and said he'd walk from San Diego to Ann Arbor if necessary. Says all the right things to establish himself as the anti-Rodriguez.
Grade: B–. The Wolverines should be significantly better this fall, regardless of the coach: They get back a huge number of starters. a star quarterback and a defense that must improve as a matter of statistical inevitability. But (successes notwithstanding) Hoke doesn't have many skins on the wall for a job of this caliber and comes across as something of a sentimental, "family" hire, which will only sustain warm feelings among the faithful until the ball is snapped.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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The Clown's Mouth: 'Vintage' Tiger Woods, Middle East golf

Rounding up a few of the week's stories that didn't quite merit the full-post treatment.

• Check out the LPGA's new ad campaign, featuring Natalie Gulbis signing in strange areas ...

• At the ACE Group Classic in Naples, Fla., John Cook reported that Tiger Woods' swing has finally "clicked," and that he should be back to his winning ways soon. We shall see, won't we? [Press Tent]

• In Thailand, Michelle Wie and Yani Tseng sit just one stroke behind In-Kyung Kim, who shot a record-tying 63 on Thursday but, unfortunately, was 10 strokes worse on Friday. [Golfweek]

• Great video here from Golf Digest's Dom Furore on golf in the Middle East. Well worth a watch for, as GD puts it, a "familiar game in an unfamiliar land." [Golf Digest]

• Donald Trump has offered his Trump National Club in Bedminster, N.J., as a potential U.S. Open backup site. (Also, be sure to listen to our interview with Trump right here on his new season of "Donald J. Trump's Fabulous World of Golf.") [Golfweek]

Got a link/tip? Hit us up on Twitter at @jaybusbee, on Facebook right here, or by email at jay.busbee@yahoo.com.

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Touchdown Atlantic is officially back

It was widely speculated after last year's successful Touchdown Atlantic game (pictured above, with Toronto's Jeff Johnson hurdling Edmonton's Roderick Williams) that there would be a second one this coming season. That was made official today, with the CFL releasing an announcement that there will be another neutral-site regular-season game in Moncton sometime this year. Dates and the participating teams are yet to come, but it's worth keeping in mind that the initial rumours mentioned the potential involvement of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats as the "home team". At least they aren't threatening to move there permanently any more, though.

The deal was announced today after Moncton council officially ratified an agreement with the league for the 2011 game. Scotiabank will again be the presenting sponsor of the game and the festivities around it, and it looks like there will be plenty of surrounding events again. That could be crucial to making this game a success, as it no longer has the novelty value of being the league's first neutral-site regular season game.

In fact, the response to this event may wind up telling us quite a lot about if Moncton has the capability to have its own year-round CFL team, or if it's just a convenient location for special events like this. Here's what CFL commissioner Mark Cohon said on that subject in the league's release:

Cohon said the CFL continues to evaluate the opportunity to play more games in Atlantic Canada in the years ahead.

"Time will tell whether we are expanding our footprint in the region, or in a position to consider actual expansion to Atlantic Canada," Cohon said.

"What we do know is the first Scotiabank Touchdown Atlantic was a huge hit, and working with our civic and corporate partners in the region, we're going to strive to make Scotiabank Touchdown Atlantic Two even better."

As I've mentioned before, it's good to see that the league's going slowly and carefully here. The terrific fan response last year, where tickets for the game sold out in 36 hours and people flocked from all around the Maritimes to catch the action, might have motivated a more expansion-inclined league to instantly promise a new franchise, and that would have been the wrong move at this point. The CFL's been hurt before by expanding rapidly without a lot of thought, and while Moncton isn't Shreveport or Las Vegas, the area still hasn't proven yet that it can support a CFL team year-round. It might be able to do so in time, and one of the first key steps along that path will be a strong performance in a Touchdown Atlantic reprise.

This game is going to be one of the critical moments for the CFL this year, and it's great to see that it's back on the schedule. A lot depends on how it goes, though. If last year's success was based on the novelty value and the reception to this one is more muted, that may doom the hopes of expansion to Atlantic Canada for the foreseeable future. If it goes well, that may prompt serious talk of establishing an expansion franchise in Atlantic Canada. Regardless of the outcome, all eyes will be on Moncton at some point this year; we'll just have to wait a while to find out when.

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